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On the new triangular relationship between China, Russia and the United States – 论中俄美新三角关系

 Author: Zhao Huasheng  Category: Central Asia, Chinese Scholarship, Geopolitics, International Relations, Journal  Publisher: Russian Eastern Europe and Central Asia Studies, 2018(6), 1-25  Language: Chinese

The new triangular relationship between China, Russia, and the United States is an objective reality, and it is different from the “big triangle” of China, the United States, and the Soviet Union in history in terms of nature, structure, content, function, and influence. The Sino-Russian-U.S. relationship has no established track of change, and its prospects are still open at this stage. There are many variables in the changes in the Sino-Russian-U.S. new triangle, which can be divided into two categories: background variables and direct variables. The change in the China-Russia-U.S. triangle is not mechanical, isolated, and linear, but depends on the interaction of multiple variables. There are many possible modes in the China-Russia-U.S. triangle in theory, and the determination of the mode is not only a subjective choice but also depends on the situation and practical needs to a greater extent. Alliances have tool properties, and theoretically, there is no need to completely exclude them from the diplomatic tool arsenal. In Sino-Russian-U.S. relations, Sino-Russian partnership and non-alliance is the golden model, and alliance can only be a choice under the unavoidable situation. The Sino-Russian alliance means that the United States is already an open enemy. Although the threat of the alliance can be mitigated, a big country becoming an enemy itself constitutes a huge degree of strategic pressure. For China, preventing the appearance of enemies, especially not turning partners into enemies, is a greater strategic success, and maintaining better relations with the other two countries is a higher diplomatic realm. Although the possibility of a Sino-Russian alliance is very small, if Sino-U.S. and Russia-U.S. relations continue to deteriorate, the situation may push China and Russia to some kind of Asian alliance. China rejects the Cold War mentality and “zero-sum game,” but can use the triangular structure of China, Russia, and the United States in a reasonable, effective, and constructive way.