Export Competition between China and Russia in Central Asia: An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Promotion Effects 中俄在中亚市场的出口竞争研究——基于动态促进效应的实证分析

Empirical studies of export competition between China and Russia in Central Asia are inadequate despite high interest in the topic. Conducting an analysis of China and Russia’s exports over the 2000-2019 period by adopting the method of descriptive statistics, this paper concludes that Russia’s influence on Central Asia has not been weakened by China ‘s rising performance in the region. In particular, the impact of China’s exports upon that of Russia is tested by establishing a dynamic gravity model and using a systematic GMM estimation based on 40 categories of two-digit codes for Central Asia’s trade data over the 2003-2019 period. The findings of this study indicate that China’s exports have a positive effect on those of Russia and thus have no crowding-out effect on Russia’s trade with Central Asia. The leading role of China’s exports results from the positive externality effect of Chinese investment in Central Asia when it is integrated into the model as an adjustment variable.