Affecting Factors on Social Stability in Central Asian Countries——Comprehensive Analysis of Basic Factors and Shock Factors中亚国家社会稳定影响因素探析——基于基础性因素和冲击性因素的综合分析

Through the two analytical frameworks of basic factors and shocks factors, this paper summarizes the main factors affecting the stability of Central Asian society: core leaders, civil common sense, traditional society, economic stability, civil ( youth) groups, poverty, governance capability and external factors. The impact of core leaders upon social stability is crucial, indicating that the concept of social administration in Central Asian countries is mainly a rigid concept of administration. In this regard, their social stability shows certain fragility. The reason why Central Asian countries maintain basic social stability in a long term is mainly due to the manifestation and intensity of political conflicts have changed, and the stability of core leaders and traditional society have played an important role. In the next few years, the social situation in Central Asian countries will continue to stabilize, but the compound feature of long-term social issues will become obvious. Moreover, people’s livelihood issues will be an emphasis and the transfer of power would probably pose the greatest threat to the social stability of Central Asian countries.