A Quantitative Analysis of Political Risk in Central Asian Countries 中亚国家政治风险量化分析

Using the method of quantitative analysis, this paper initially establishes a quantitative analysis model of political risk in Central Asian countries, compares and analyzes the changes in political risk in 2008 and 2012, and attempts to quantitatively analyze the current political risks in the region and anticipate future trends. This paper argues that political risk in Central Asia is generally on the rise, but that the increase is not large; the possibility of “street politics” in Central Asia will increase in the future; the social problems in Central Asian countries are relatively serious; the risk situation in Uzbekistan has changed greatly, and its stability; Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are characterized by “high risk and high stability”, and the possibility of inter-ethnic conflict in Kyrgyzstan, strong opposition, and strong impact on the government will increase year by year; low intensity armed conflict may occur between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan; Islamic extremism in northern Afghanistan and religious extremist forces in the Fergana Valley will threaten regional security.